REVISED ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL NATIONAL INCOME, 2010-11

REVISED ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL NATIONAL INCOME, 2010-11
AND
QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2010-11

1.The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the revised estimates of national income for the financial year 2010-11 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2010-11, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.

2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.

I REVISED ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2010-11
3. The advance estimates of national income for the year 2010-11 were released on 7th February, 2011. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance and government expenditure.

4. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices Gross Domestic Product
5. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2010-11 is now estimated at Rs. 48,77,842 crore (as against Rs. 48,79,232 crore estimated earlier on 7th February, 2011), showing a growth rate of 8.5 per cent (as against 8.6 per cent in the Advance Estimates) over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 44, 93,743 crore, released on 31th January 2011. The downward revision in the GDP growth rate is mainly on account of lower performance in ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’ and ‘trade, hotels, transport, and communication’ and ‘financing, insurance, real estate & business services’ than anticipated.

6. In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed an upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of wheat (84.27 million Tonnes from 81.47 million Tonnes), pulses (17.29 million Tonnes from 16.51 million Tonnes), oilseeds (302.51 lakh Tonnes from 278.48 lakh Tonnes) and sugarcane (340.54 million Tonnes from 336.70 million Tonnes) during 2010- 11. Due to this upward revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2010-11 has shown a growth rate of 6.6 per cent, as against the growth rate of 5.4 per cent in the Advance estimates.

7. In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIP-Mining) registered a growth rate of 5.9 per cent during 2010-11, as against the growth rate of 8.0 per cent during April-November, 2010, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Due to this decrease in the IIP-Mining, the growth rate in GDP is now estimated at 5.8 per cent, as against the advance estimate growth rate of 6.2 per cent.

8. Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 8.1 per cent during 2010- 11, as against the growth rate of 10 per cent during April-November, 2010. Due to this decrease in the IIP, the growth rate in GDP of ‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at 8.3 per cent, as against the Advance estimate growth rate of 8.8 per cent.

9. The sector 'community, social and personal services' has shown a rise in growth rate to 7.0 per cent in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 5.7 per cent in the advance estimates, mainly due to rise in total expenditure of Central Government than anticipated (during April-December, 2010, the total expenditure of Central Government showed an increase of 11.2 per cent over the corresponding period of previous year which was extrapolated in the advance estimates, whereas the RE, 2010-11 showed a rise of 19.4 per cent
during 2010-11).

10. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (6.6 per cent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (5.8 per cent), ‘manufacturing’ (8.3 per cent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ (5.7 per cent) ‘construction’ (8.1 per cent), 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (10.3 per cent), 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services' (9.9 per cent), and 'community, social and personal services' (7.0 per cent).

Gross National Income
11. The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at Rs. 48,34,759 crore (as compared to Rs. 48,44,971 crore estimated on 7th February 2011), during 2010-11, as against the previous year’s Quick Estimate of Rs. 44,64,854 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 8.3 per cent during 2010-11, in comparison to the growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2009-10.

Per Capita Net National Income
12. The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2010-11 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 35,917 (as against Rs. 36,003 estimated on 7th February, 2011), as compared to the Quick Estimates for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 33,731. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.5 per cent during 2010-11 as against 6.1 per cent during 2009-10.

(b) Estimates at current prices
Gross Domestic Product
13. GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2010-11 is estimated at Rs. 73,06,990 crore, showing a growth rate of 19.1 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 61,33,230 crore, released on 31th January 2011.

Gross National Income
14. The GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs. 72,41,026 crore during
2010-11, as compared to Rs. 60,95,230 crore during 2009-10, showing a rise of 18.8 per cent.

Per Capita Net National Income
15. The per capita income at current prices during 2010-11 is estimated to have attained a
level of Rs. 54,835 as compared to the Quick Estimates for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 46,492,
showing a rise of 17.9 per cent.

II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2010-11
16. Alongwith the Revised Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of central government. As various components of expenditure on gross
domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure
17. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 45,02,974 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 37,82,013 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 30,91,328 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 28,46,410 crore in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 57.2 per cent and 58.3 per cent, respectively, asagainst the corresponding rates of 57.7 per cent and 58.5 per cent, respectively in 2009-10.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure
18. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 9,06,665 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 7,85,443 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 5,91,761 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 5,64,835 crore in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 11.5 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 12.0 per cent and 11.6 per cent, respectively in 2009-10.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation
19. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 23,22,097 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 20,16,186 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 16,93,284 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 15,59,126 crore in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 29.5 per cent and 32.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.8 per cent and 32.0 per cent, respectively in 2009-10. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 3.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively.

20. The discrepancies at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at (-) 0.2 per cent and (-) 1.5 per cent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of (-) 0.3 per cent each in 2009-10.

21. Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.

II QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2010-11
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices
22. The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2010-11 is estimated at Rs. 13,17,554 crore, as against Rs. 12,22,573 crore in Q4 of 2009-10, showing a growth rate of 7.8 per cent. The sectors which registered significant growth rates in Q4 of 2010-11 over Q4 of 2009-10 are ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ at 7.5 per cent ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 7.8 per cent, ‘construction’ at 8.2 per cent, 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' at 9.3 per cent, and 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services' at 9.0 per cent.

23. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2010-11 are estimated at Rs. 7,72,416 crore and Rs. 4,72,304 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2010-11 were 52.6 per cent and 32.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 52.4 per cent and 34.5 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2009-10.

(b) Estimates at current prices
24. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4 of 2010-11 is estimated at Rs. 20,12,528 crore, as against Rs. 17,16,675 crore in Q4 of 2009-10, showing a rise of 17.2 per cent.

25. The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices in Q4 of 2010-11 are estimated at Rs. 11,70,430 crore and Rs. 6,58,212 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2010-11 are estimated at 52.6 per cent and 29.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 53.2 per cent and 32.7 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2009-10.

26. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 7 to 10.

27. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter April-June, 2011 (Q1 of
2011-12) will be on 30.08.2011.