Dramatic liberalization of India's foreign direct investment regime

A government panel on 19 June has recommended a dramatic liberalization of India's foreign direct investment regime, including raising the FDI limit to 74% in multi-brand retail and allowing complete foreign ownership of telecom and aviation companies. "We have given our recommendations to the finance minister. He has forwarded them to the Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion (DIPP)," department of economic affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram, who headed the panel, told reporters on 19 June. He did not provide details of the report's contents. It has also batted for raising or doing away with FDI caps in a number of sectors, including non-scheduled air transport, ground handling at airports, satellites, private security agencies and Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to attract capital flows that are needed to finance the current account deficit and bolster the rupee. The DIPP, the administrative ministry in charge of FDI policy, will now have to implement the Mayaram Committee report. Key ministers, notably Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Commerce Minister Anand Sharma, are expected to meet in the first week of July to finalise the plan. The panel has suggested allowing foreign supermarkets to buy up to 74% in Indian retailers with prior government approval. The multi-brand retail sector was thrown open to foreign investors in September 2012 but has failed to see any investment so far. The panel has suggested 100% FDI in telecom and non-scheduled air transport and amending rules to allow complete ownership by foreign investors, including airlines, in scheduled carriers. FDI in telecom will need approval of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB), a government panel. The committee has also favoured allowing 100% FDI in ISPs, private security agencies, satellite, ground handling operations, cable networks, direct-to-home services, mobile TV and teleports. It has also suggested lifting caps to 49% from 26% in a number of sectors and doing away with mandatory FIPB clearance in these industries. The government is actively discussing raising FDI in defence production to 49% and in telecom to 100%. 

Infrastructure debt fund (IDF)

India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) has launched on 18 June, its first infrastructure debt fund (IDF) with targeted initial corpus of $1 billion. The company has launched the debt fund through the mutual fund route. After launching the new scheme, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the fund would help mobilize long-term financing for infrastructure projects. Chidambaram said introduction of the new scheme by the IIFCL would "pave the way for setting-up of more such infra debt funds."Besides IIFCL, other investors in the debt fund include Canara Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Corporation Bank and HUDCO. The new scheme will mainly undertake investment in debt securities or securitized debt instruments of infrastructure companies, infrastructure capital companies or infrastructure projects, special purpose vehicle (SPV), bank loans etc. with the investment objective of capital appreciation and trade on the stock exchange, according to a statement issued by the finance ministry. IIFCL chairman S.K. Goel said the IDF will complement commercial banks in providing the required long-term funding to infrastructure sector and help in addressing their asset liability mismatch. 

Mid Day Meal Scheme

The Mid Day Meal is the world’s largest school feeding programme reaching out to about 12 crore children in over 12.65 lakh schools/EGS centres across the country.

Mid Day Meal in schools has had a long history in India. In 1925, a Mid Day Meal Programme was introduced for disadvantaged children in Madras Municipal Corporation. By the mid 1980s three States viz. Gujarat, Kerala and Tamil Nadu and the UT of Pondicherry had universalized a cooked Mid Day Meal Programme with their own resources for children studying at the primary stage By 1990-91 the number of States implementing the mid day meal programme with their own resources on a universal or a large scale had increased to twelve states.

1. With a view to enhancing enrollment, retention and attendance and simultaneously improving nutritional levels among children, the National Programme of Nutritional Support to Primary Education (NP-NSPE) was launched as a Centrally Sponsored Scheme on 15th August 1995, initially in 2408 blocks in the country. By the year 1997-98 the NP-NSPE was introduced in all blocks of the country. It was further extended in 2002 to cover not only children in classes I -V of Government, Government aided and local body schools, but also children studying in EGS and AIE centres. Central Assistance under the scheme consisted of free supply of food grains @ 100 grams per child per school day, and subsidy for transportation of food grains up to a maximum of Rs 50 per quintal.

2. In September 2004 the scheme was revised to provide cooked mid day meal with 300 calories and 8-12 grams of protein to all children studying in classes I – V in Government and aided schools and EGS/ AIE centres. In addition to free supply of food grains, the revised scheme provided Central Assistance for (a) Cooking cost @ Re 1 per child per school day, (b) Transport subsidy was raised from the earlier maximum of Rs 50 per quintal to Rs. 100 per quintal for special category states, and Rs 75 per quintal for other states, (c) Management, monitoring and evaluation costs @ 2% of the cost of foodgrains, transport subsidy and cooking assistance, (d) Provision of mid day meal during summer vacation in drought affected areas.

3. In July 2006 the scheme was further revised to provide assistance for cooking cost at the rate of (a) Rs 1.80 per child/school day for States in the North Eastern Region, provided the NER States contribute Rs 0.20 per child/school day, and (b) Rs 1.50 per child/ school day for other States and UTs, provided that these States and UTs contribute Rs 0.50 per child/school day.

4. In October 2007, the scheme has been further revised to cover children in upper primary (classes VI to VIII) initially in 3479 Educationally Backwards Blocks (EBBs). Around 1.7 crore upper primary children were included by this expansion of the scheme. From 2008-09 i.e w.e.f 1st April, 2008, the programme covers all children studying in Government, Local Body and Government-aided primary and upper primary schools and the EGS/AIE centres including Madarsa and Maqtabs supported under SSA of all areas across the country. The calorific value of a mid-day meal at upper primary stage has been fixed at a minimum of 700 calories and 20 grams of protein by providing 150 grams of food grains (rice/wheat) per child/school day.

5.During the year 2009 the following changes have been made to improve the implementation of the scheme:-

a) Food norms have been revised to ensure balanced and nutritious diet to children of upper primary group by increasing the quantity of pulses from 25 to 30 grams, vegetables from 65 to 75 grams and by decreasing the quantity of oil and fat from 10 grams to 7.5 grams.

b) Cooking cost (excluding the labour and administrative charges) has been revised from Rs.1.68 to to Rs. 2.50 for primary and from Rs. 2.20 to Rs. 3.75 for upper primary children from 1.12.2009 to facilitate serving meal to eligible children in prescribed quantity and of good quality .The cooking cost for primary is Rs. 2.69 per child per day and Rs. 4.03 for upper primary children from 1.4.2010.The cooking cost will be revised by 7.5% from 1.4.2011.

c) The honorarium for cooks and helpers was paid from the labour and other administrative charges of Rs.0.40 per child per day provided under the cooking cost. In many cases the honorarium was so little that it became very difficult to engage manpower for cooking the meal. A Separate component for Payment of honorarium @ Rs.1000 per month per cook- cum-helper was introduced from 1.12.2009.Honorarium at the above prescribed rate is being paid to cook-cum-helper. Following norms for engagement of cook-cum-helper have been made:
(i) One cook- cum-helper for schools up to 25 students. (ii) Two cooks-cum-helpers for schools with 26 to 100 students . (iii) One additional cook-cum-helper for every addition of upto 100 students. More than 26 lakhs cook-cum-helper at present are engaged by the State/UTs during 2010-11 for preparation and serving of Mid Day Meal to Children in Elementary Classes.

d) A common unit cost of construction of kitchen shed @ Rs.60,000 for the whole country was impractical and also inadequate .Now the cost of construction of kitchen-cum-store will be determined on the basis of plinth area norm and State Schedule of Rates. The Department of School Education and Literacy vide letter No.1-1/2009-Desk(MDM) dated 31.12.2009 had prescribed 20 sq.mt. plinth area for schools having upto 100 children. For every additional upto 100 children additional 4 sq.mt plinth area will be added. States/UTs have the flexibility to modify the Slab of 100 children depending upon the local condition.

e) Due to difficult geographical terrain of the Special category States the transportation cost @ Rs.1.25 per quintal was not adequate to meet the actual cost of transportation of foodgrains from the FCI godowns to schools in these States. On the request of the North Eastern States the transportation assistance in the 11 Special Category States (Northern Eastern States, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand) have been made at par with the Public Distribution System (PDS) rates prevalent in these States with effect from 1.12.2009.

f) The existing system of payment of cost of foodgrains to FCI from the Government of India is prone to delays and risk. Decentralization of payment of cost of foodgrains to the FCI at the district level from 1.4.2010 will allow officers at State and National levels to focus on detailed monitoring of the Scheme.

8.41 cr Primary children and 3.36 cr Upper Primary children i.e a total of 11.77 cr children were estimated to be benefited from MDM Scheme during 2009-10. 11.04 Crore children were covered under MDM Scheme during 2009-10.

During 2010-11 11.36 Cr children i.e 7.97 Cr. children in primary and 3.39 Cr. children in upper primary are expected to be covered in 12.63 lakhs institutions .

Today, Mid day Meal scheme is serving primary and upper primary school children in entire country.

Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) on non-farm products

Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) on non-farm products from July 1, 2013 As per an announcement made by the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), from July 1, 2013, the Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) shall be levied on the derivative contracts of non-agricultural commodities which are transacted via recognized commodity bourses.

What is Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT):
Proposed in Finance Bill, 2013 for enhancing financial resources.
A tax which shall be levied on non-agricultural commodities futures contracts at the same rate as on equity futures that is at 0.01% of the price of the trade.
CTT would tax trading of non-farm commodities like gold, silver and non-ferrous metals such as copper and energy products like crude oil and natural gas in India.
CTT exempts 23 specified agricultural commodities which include wheat, turmeric, soya bean, red chilli, mustard seed, potato, pepper, cotton, cotton seed, coriander, copra, channa, castor seed, cardamom, barley and almond.
All the processed agricultural items such as guar gum, soya oil and sugar are subject to the CTT on future contracts.
Here both parties—buyer & seller of contract—will be taxed depending on the amount of contract size.
Similar to the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) levied on the purchase and sale of equities in the stock market.
So far, commodity transactions have been exempted from any levy.

What are the Advantages of levying CTT:
It will open up new resources for the augmentation of government finances.
CTT would generate revenues of around Rs.45 billion to government.
It is also aimed at bringing transparency in the commodity exchange market.

What could be the disadvantages of CTT:
CTT has been opposed by the experts and the PMEAC had also suggested against levying such a tax.
CTT will increase the transaction cost because traders already pay brokerage, deposit margin, brokerage, stamp duty and transaction charges.

Key Indicators of Employment and Unemployment in India, 2011-12

The National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the key indicators of Employment and Unemployment in India,  from the data collected in its 68^th round survey conducted during the period July 2011 - June 2012. The NSS surveys on employment and unemployment are conducted quinquennially starting from 27^th round (October 1972 - September 1973) and the last quinquennial survey was conducted in NSS 66^th round (July 2009- June 2010) for which, the results have already been released. The NSS 68^th round was the ninth quinquennial round on the subject. The detailed results of surveys on employment and unemployment are usually brought out by the NSSO through a number of reports. In order to make available the salient results of the surveys, well in advance of the release of its reports, for use in planning, policy formulation, decision support and as input for further statistical exercises, the NSSO has released the key indicators.

            The indicators are based on the Central Sample of  1,01,724 households (59,700 in rural areas and 42,024 in urban areas) surveyed from 7,469 villages in rural areas and 5,268 urban blocks spread over all the States and Union Territories except (i) interior villages of Nagaland situated beyond five kilometres of the bus route and (ii) villages in Andaman and Nicobar Islands which remained inaccessible throughout the year.

            In defining the lead indicators of Labour force participation rate (LFPR i.e. ratio of labour force to population), Worker Population Ratio (WPR i.e. ratio of workforce to population), Proportion Unemployed (PU i.e. ratio of unemployed to population) and Unemployment Rate (UR i.e. ratio of unemployed to labour force) in NSS surveys, persons areclassified into various activity categories on the ba­sis of the activities pursued by them during certain speci­fied reference periods. Three reference periods used in NSS surveys are (i) one year (ii) one week and (iii) each day of the reference week.  Based on these three periods, three different mea­sures of activity status are arrived at. Activity status determined on the basis of reference period of one year is known as the Usual Status (US) of a person, that determined on the basis of a reference period of one week is known as the Current Weekly Status (CWS) of the person and the activity status determined on the basis of the activities pursued by a person on each day during the reference week is known as the Current Daily Status (CDS) of the person. In US approach, there are two indicators viz. one based on principal activity called Usual Principal Status (ps) and other based on both principal and subsidiary activities taken together termed as Usual Status (ps+ss). The unit of measurements in case of US and CWS is persons and in case of CDS, it is person-days. The key indicators on employment and unemployment based on 68^th round along with the comparable indicators of 66^th round  and estimated persons/person-days (in million) in labour force, in workforce and unemployed corresponding to these two rounds are given in Annexure -I andAnnexure –II respectively.

            These indicators and also the other important statistics relating to  distribution of workers according to employment status and industry and also on wage rates of regular wage/salaried employees and casual labourers from the survey are summarized as below:

1.      Labour force participation rate (LFPR) in Usual Status (ps+ss)

·       About 40 per cent of population belonged to the labour force - 41 per cent in rural areas and 37 per cent in urban areas.

·      LFPR for males was nearly 56 per cent and it was 23 per cent for females.

·      LFPR was about 55 per cent for rural males and about 56 per cent for urban males. It was  about 25 per cent for rural females and about 16 per cent for urban females.

2.      Worker Population Ratio (WPR) in usual status (ps+ss)

·      WPR was 39 per cent at the all-India level- 40 per cent in rural areas and 36 per cent in urban areas.

·       WPR for males was nearly 54 per cent and it was 22 per cent for females.

·      WPR was nearly 54 per cent for rural males and 25 per cent for rural females. It was nearly 55 per cent for urban males and 15 per cent urban females. 

3.        Unemployment rate (UR) in usual status (adjusted)

·         UR in the usual status (ps+ss) termed as UR in usual status (adjusted) was nearly 2 per cent at the all-India level. It was about 2 per cent in rural areas  and about 3 per cent in urban.

·         In the rural areas, UR for both males and females were almost at the same level (nearly 2 per cent) while in urban areas, UR for females was about 5 per cent as compared to 3 per cent for males.

4.                  Growth in employment between 66^th  round and 68^th  round:

According to the  usual status (ps+ss), the workforce at the all-India level, was about 459.0 millions (rural male: 231.9, rural female:104.5, urban male: 99.8 and urban female: 22.8) as on 1st January 2010 (NSS 66^th round) which increased to 472.9 millions (rural male: 234.6, rural female:101.8, urban male:109.2 and urban female: 27.3) as on 1st January 2012 (NSS 68^th round), indicating a growth of about 13.9 millions of the workforce at the all-India level between 66^th round and 68^th round.

5.                  Distribution of usual status (ps+ss) workers  by employment status

·       In the total workforce of usual status (ps+ss) at the all-India level, the shares of self-employed, regular wage/salaried employees and casual labour were 52 per cent, 18 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively.

·       In the rural areas, the shares of self-employed, regular wage/salaried employees and casual labour were 56 per cent, 9 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively.

·       In the urban areas, the shares of self-employed and regular wage/salaried employees were 42 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively and the rest (15 per cent) were casual labours.

·       The shares of self-employment in total workforce were 55 per cent for rural males, 59 per cent for rural females, 42 per cent for urban males, 43 per cent for urban females. The corresponding shares of casual labour were 36 per cent, 35 per cent, 15 per cent and 14 per cent for rural males, rural females, urban males and urban females, respectively.

6.                  Industry-wise distribution of usual status (ps+ss) workers

·         Among the workers in the usual status (ps+ss), about 49 per cent, 24 per cent and 27 per cent were engaged in agricultural sector, secondary sector and tertiary sector, respectively.

·         In rural areas, nearly 59 per cent of the usual status (ps+ss) male workers  and nearly 75 per cent of the female workers were engaged in the agricultural sector. Among the male workers, 22 per cent  and 19 per cent were engaged in secondary and tertiary sectors, respectively. The corresponding proportions for female workers were 17 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.

·         In urban areas, nearly 59 per cent of male workers and 55 per cent of the female workers were engaged in the tertiary sector. The secondary sector employed nearly 35 per cent of the male and 34 per cent of the female workers. The share of urban workforce in agricultural sector was nearly 6 per cent for male workers and 11 per cent for female workers.

7.                  Wage Rates of Regular Wage/Salaried Employees and Casual Labourers (age 15-59 years)

·         At the all-India level, average wages received by regular wage/salaried employees was Rs. 396 per day. This was Rs. 299 in the rural areas and Rs. 450 in the urban areas.

·         In the rural areas, wages received per day  by a regular wage/salaried employee was was Rs. 322 for males and Rs. 202 for females, indicating the female-male wage ratio as 0.63. In the urban areas, this was Rs. 470 for males and Rs. 366 for females, indicating the female-male wage ratio as 0.78.

·         Daily wages received by casual labours engaged in works other than public works was Rs. 139 in rural areas and Rs. 170 in urban areas. In the rural areas, wage received (per day) was Rs. 149 for males and Rs. 103 for females. In the urban areas, the corresponding rates were Rs. 182 and Rs. 111 for males and females, respectively.

·         Daily wages received by casual labours of rural areas engaged in public works other than MGNREG public works was Rs. 121. This was Rs. 127 for males and Rs. 111 for females. Daily wages received by casual labours of rural areas engaged in MGNREG public works was Rs. 107. This was Rs. 112 for males and Rs. 102 for females.

Click here to see Annexures.

Key Indicators of Household Consumer Expenditure in India, 2011-12

The National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the key indicators of household consumer expenditure in India, generated from the data collected during July 2011–June 2012 in its 68^th round survey. NSS surveys on consumer expenditure are conducted quinquenniallystarting from 27^th round (October 1972 – September 1973) and the last quinquennial survey was conducted in NSS 66^th round (July 2009 – June 2010), for which the results have already been released.  The NSS 68^th round was the ninth quinquennial round on the subject.

           

The NSS consumer expenditure survey aims at generating estimates of household monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) and its distribution, separately for the rural and urban sectors of the country, for States and Union Territories, and for different socio-economic groups.  These indicators are amongst the most important measures of the level of living of the respective domains of the population and are crucial inputs for estimation of prevalence of poverty by the Planning Commission.  The detailed results of a quinquennial survey on consumer expenditure are usually brought out by the NSSO through a number of reports.  In order to make available the salient results of the survey well in advance of the release of its reports, for use in planning, policy formulation,decision support and as input for further statistical exercises, the NSSO has released the key indicators.

           

The key indicators are based on the Central Sample consisting of 7,469 villages in rural areas and 5,268 urban blocks spread over all States and Union Territories except in (i) interior villages of Nagaland situated beyond five kilometres of a bus route and (ii) villages in Andaman and Nicobar Islands which remain inaccessible throughout the year.

           

In the 68^th round consumer expenditure survey, two types of schedules of enquiry – Schedule 1.0 Type 1 and Schedule 1.0 Type 2 – were used to collect data on household consumption, each in about half of the sample households.  The schedules differed only in reference periods (recall periods for reporting consumption). It is a known fact that using a different reference period alters the estimate of consumption obtained. The differences between the schedules are summarised as follows:

Reference periods used for collection of consumption data in Schedule 1.0
Cate-gory	Item groups	Reference period for
		Schedule Type 1	Schedule Type 2
I	Clothing, bedding, footwear, education, medical (institutional), durable goods	‘Last 30 days’ and ‘Last 365 days’	Last 365 days
II	Edible oil; egg, fish & meat; vegetables, fruits, spices, beverages and processed foods; pan, tobacco & intoxicants	Last 30 days	Last 7 days
III	All other food, fuel and light, miscellaneous goods and services including non-institutional medical; rents and taxes	Last 30 days	Last 30 days

            From each sample household where Schedule Type 1 was canvassed, there are two possible ways of measuring household MPCE: one using “last 30 days” for all items, and the other using “last 365 days” data for Category I items and “last 30 days” for the rest. The first measure of MPCE is called MPCE_URP (Uniform Reference Period MPCE) and the second, MPCE_MRP (Mixed Reference Period MPCE). From the data collected through Schedule Type 1, therefore, two alternative estimates of distribution of MPCE and average MPCE can be built up.

Using the data collected through Schedule Type 2, a third estimate of distribution of MPCE and average MPCE can be built up. Since the reference period system used for Schedule Type 2 was only a slight modification of the Mixed Reference Period (differing only in the reference period used for Category II items), this measure of MPCE was called the MPCE_MMRP (Modified Mixed Reference Period MPCE).

            The values of all-India average MPCE according to the three different measurement methods from NSS 66^th and 68^th rounds are given below:

Average MPCE (Rs.)
NSS Round	MPCEURP		MPCEMRP		MPCEMMRP
	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban
66th (2009-10)	927.70	1785.81	953.05	1856.01	1053.04	1984.46
68th (2011-12)	1278.94	2399.24	1287.17	2477.02	1429.96	2629.65

The estimates of average MPCE and its break-up over groups of consumption items – 14 food groups and 16 non-food groups – are provided separately for rural and urban sectors at the State/UT level as well as across all-India fractile classes of MPCE. The fractile classes are mostly decile classes. Thus, the first decile class comprises the bottom 10 percent of population in terms of MPCE and the top (10^th) decile class comprises the top 10 percent of population. However, the first and 10^th decile classes have each been further split into two equal-sized fractileclasses. Estimates of distribution of rural and urban population of each State/UT over 12 MPCE classes as well as State/UT-level fractiles (limits of fractile classes formed at State/UT level) are also provided,

 

             Some salient  findings of the survey relating to monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) based on modified mixed reference period (MMRP)  are as follows:

·         The all-India estimate of average MPCE was around Rs.1430 for rural India and about Rs.2630 for urban India. Thus average urban MPCE was about 84% higher than average rural MPCE for the country as a whole, though there were wide variations in this differential across States.

·         For rural India, the 5^th percentile of the MPCE distribution was estimated as Rs.616 and the 10^th percentile as Rs.710. The median MPCE was Rs.1198. Only about 10% of the rural population reported household MPCE above Rs.2296 and only 5% reported MPCE above Rs.2886.

·         For urban India, the 5^th percentile of the MPCE distribution was Rs.827 and the 10^th percentile, Rs.983. The median MPCE was Rs.2019. Only about 10% of the urban population reported household MPCE above Rs.4610 and only 5% reported MPCE above Rs.6383.

·         For the average rural Indian, food accounted for 52.9% of the value of consumption during 2011-12. This included 10.8% for cereals and cereal substitutes, 8% for milk and milk products, 7.9% on beverages, refreshments and processed food, and 6.6% on vegetables. Among non-food item categories, fuel and light for household purposes (excluding transportation) accounted for 8%, clothing and footwear for 7%, medical expenses for 6.7%, education for 3.5%, conveyance for 4.2%, other consumer services (excl. conveyance)for 4%, and consumer durables for 4.5%.

·         For the average urban Indian, 42.6% of the value of household consumption was accounted for by food, including 9% by beverages, refreshments and processed food, 7% by milk and milk products, and 6.7% by cereals and cereal substitutes. Education accounted for 6.9%, fuel and light for 6.7%, conveyance  for6.5%, and clothing &  footwear  for 6.4%.

Average MPCE_MMRP across fractile classes of MPCE_MMRP, at  all-India level for rural and urban areasduring 2011-12 is given in Annexure-I. Absolute and percentage break-up of MPCE_MMRP at  all-India level for rural and urban areas during 2011-12 is given at Annexure –II. Trends in percentage composition of MPCE_URPsince 1993-94 for rural and urban sectors of India are given in Annexure III.

Click here to see Annexure.

Union Government of India proposed plan to raise FDI Limit in Key Sectors

To promote India as an attractive destination for investment, the Union Finance Ministry on 18 June 2013 proposed sweeping changes in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regime. 

The committee that was headed by the Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram recommended to raise the Foreign Direct Investment limit to 49 percent from 26 percent at present in almost all sectors like multi-brand retail, defence and telecom through automatic route.

The committee also recommended the government to increase the cap of FDI to 74 percent in multi-brand retail trading and 49 percent in single-brand retail. 

About Arvind Mayaram Committee:

The Union Government in March 2013 constituted a four-member committee to give clear definitions to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) with an aim of removing the ambiguity from both types of foreign investments. The Committee was headed by the Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram and the high power committee constituted a DIPP Secretary, an RBI Deputy Governor and a SEBI Whole-time Member. The report pf the committee was submitted to the Union Ministry of Finance on 18 June 2013.

Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2012-13

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2012-13 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.

2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.

I         PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2012-13

3.     The advance estimates of national income for the year 2012-13 were released on 7^th February, 2013. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance and government expenditure.

4.      The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices

Gross Domestic Product

5.                 GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05)  prices in the year 2012-13 is now estimated at  Rs. 55,05, 437 crore (as against Rs. 55,03,476 crore estimated earlier on 7^th February, 2013), showing a growth rate of 5.0 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 52, 43,582 crore, released on 31^th January 2013. 

6.                 In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed a slight  upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of rice (104.22 million Tonnes from 101.80 million Tonnes), wheat (93.62 million Tonnes from 92.30 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (336.15 million Tonnes from 334.5 million Tonnes) for the year 2012-13. Due to this revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2012-13 has shown a growth rate of 1.9 percent, as against the growth rate of 1.8 percent in the Advance Estimates.

7.        In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIP-Mining) registered a decline of 2.5 percent during 2012-13, as against the decline of 1.5 percent during April-November, 2012, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 3.3 percent and (-) 0.6 percent in 2012-13 whereas during April to December, 2012, the growth rates were 5.7 percent and (-) 0.4 percent.The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’ is now estimated at (-) 0.6 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 0.4 percent.

8.        Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 1.2 percent during 2012-13, as against the projected growth rate of 1.9 percent for April-March, 2012-13 for the Advance Estimates. Due to this, the growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at 1.0 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 1.9 percent.

9.         The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 5.6 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively in 2012-13 as against 6.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively during April-December 2012.  Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised downward to 4.3 percent as against 5.9 percent in the Advance Estimates.

10.   The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown higher growth of 14.3 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively during 2012-13 over the corresponding period in 2011-12, as compared to growth of 11.1 percent and 15.2 percent as on  December 2012. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and passenger Kilometers have have shown growth of 0.3 and 2.4 percentrespectively  during 2012-13 .The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 6.4 percent in 2012-13 as against 5.2  percent in the advance estimate released in February,2013 as the private corporate sector registered significant growth in the Trade, hotels and restaurent sector in 2012-13.

11.      The sector `community, social and personal services` has shown a growth of 6.6 percent in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 6.8 percent in the advance estimates.

Gross National Income

12.       The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at Rs. 54,49,104 crore (as compared to Rs. 54,47,169 crore estimated on 7^th February 2013), during 2012-13, as against the previous year’s First Revised Estimate of Rs. 51,96,848 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 4.9 percent during 2012-13, in comparison to the growth rate of 6.4 percent in 2011-12.

Per Capita Net National Income

13.       The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2012-13 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 39,168 (as against Rs. 39,143 estimated on 7^th February, 2013), as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 38,037. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 3.0 percent during 2012-13 as against 4.7 percent during 2011-12.

(b) Estimates at current prices

Gross Domestic Product

14.       GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 94,61,013 crore, showing a growth rate of 13.3 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 83,53 ,495 crore, released on 31^th January 2013.

Gross National Income

15.       The GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs 93,61,113 crore during 2012-13, as compared to Rs. 82,76 ,665 crore during 2011-12, showing a rise of 13.1 percent.

Per Capita Net National Income

16.       The per capita income at current prices during 2012-13 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 68,757 as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 61,564 showing a rise of 11.7 percent.

II       ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2012-13

17.       Along with the Provisional Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of central government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

18.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 56,94,362crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 50,56,219 crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 34,66,723crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 33,34,900 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 56.8 percent and 59.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.3 percent and 59.2 percent, respectively in 2011-12.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

19.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 11,86,761crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 10,42,677crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 6,59,236 crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 6,34,559 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 11.8 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.6 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively in 2011-12.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

20.      Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 29,64,677crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 27,49,072 crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 19,29,988crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 18,97,309 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 29.6 percent and 33.2 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.6 percent and 33.7 percent, respectively in 2011-12. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 3.5 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.

21.      The discrepancies at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 3.4 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of 3.0 percent and 0.0 percent respectively in 2011-12.

22.      Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.

III      QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2012-13

(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices

23.       The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 14,70,782crore, as against Rs. 14,03,727 crore in Q4 of 2011-12, showing a growth rate of 4.8 percent.

24.      Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (1.4 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (-3.1 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (2.6 percent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ (2.8 percent) ‘construction’ (4.4 percent), `trade, hotels, transport and communication` (6.2 percent), `financing, insurance, real estate and business services` (9.1 percent), and `community, social and personal services` (4.0 percent).

25.       According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of (-) 4.2 percent, 2.6 percent and 2.3 percent respectively, in Q4 of 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 0.4 percent, 0.3 percent  and 4.5 percent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2011-12.

26.       The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown decline in growth rates of 1.2 percent and  2.8 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2012-13, as against the growth rates of 7.0 percent and 7.9 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of  (-) 2  percent, (-) 3.1 percent, (-) 4.27 percent and  (-) 1.82 percent, respectively in 2012-13. The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of6.2  percent in 2012-13 as against  5.1  percent in Q4 of 2011-12 as the private corporate sector registered significant growth in the Trade, hotels and restaurent  sector in 2012-13.

27.       The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at Rs. 8,66,854 crore and Rs. 5,17,039 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 were 54.7 percent and 32.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 54.3 percent and 32.5 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12.

(b) Estimates at current prices

28.      GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 25,48,220 crore, as against Rs. 22,64,227 crore in Q4 of 2011-12, showing a growth of 12.5 percent.

29.      The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at Rs. 14,93,793 crore and Rs.8,13,868 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at 54.3 percent and 29.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 53.5 percent and 29.7 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12.

30.      Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 7 to 10.

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